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Posts Tagged ‘Decisions’

Forex Trading System: Discretionary vs. Mechanical Systems

Thursday, October 21st, 2010

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.

We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.

Mechanical systems

Advantages
This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isnt.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages
Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
A system that worked successfully the past year doesnt necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems

Advantages
Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages
They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment wont play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.

If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.

On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.

Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds hisher setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.

I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.

Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:

1.You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
2.You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
3.Take your time to build the perfect system for you. Its not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
4.Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)

Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overboughtoversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as the MA crossover made the price go up, but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where Im trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesnt want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.

Dont get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.

So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.

Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.

Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.

Forex Trading: Making Money With Money

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

Forex trading is one of the growing markets for making money in todays world economy. If you are part of the forex trading game, you need well thought out and planned strategies. You also need up to the minute information and reliable data to help you along the way. With this said, in order to be successful at forex, youll want to invest in high quality products to help you analyze, watch and track the forex market. No little project at all. The good news to you is that there are options out there to help you do just that.

First of all, realize that forex trading is an excellent market to trade in. It has the ability to make you money without a whole lot of investing. And, you can trade with whatever you have, not necessarily millions of pounds. To get into the forex market, it makes sense to pay attention to the numbers for some time. Then, youll have a good feel for it long before your pounds are involved.

But, once you do get in, youll need up to the minute information. Consider the purchase of and use of valuable forex trading software programs. These programs can help you to track what is happening and in some, it will help you to better analyze the information as well. Of course, this in turn will help you to make the right decisions about your investments.

While market trading is always risky, many find that forex trading, when done right, is one of the most profitable without much start up investment opportunities out there. With the ability that you have to monitor and respond virtually instantly to the worlds market in forex, you are better able to make the right decisions which will then lead to those gains you are seeking.