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Posts Tagged ‘Short Period’

Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overboughtoversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as the MA crossover made the price go up, but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where Im trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesnt want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.

Dont get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.

So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.

Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.

Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.

Forex Trade: Main Drawbacks of a Forex Trader

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

Why is it that very few traders succeed in the Forex trading environment while the grand majority of traders fail to achieve success? Although there is no hard answer to this question, there are a few things that will put you one step ahead and will definitely put the odds in your favor.

The main purpose of this article is to guide you through some important aspects of Forex trading. But in a different way, instead of telling you what to do or the best way to do it, it will tell you what to avoid. Sometimes it is better to identify the main drawbacks on a discipline and then isolate them so we have the best results at a certain level of development.

The search for the Holy Grail
Many traders spend years and years trying to find the Holy Grail of trading. That magic indicator or set of indicators, only known by a few traders, that will make them rich in a short period of time.
Fact: Well, there is no magic indicator, nor a set of indicators that will make anyone rich in a short period of time. The main reason of this is because market changes, every single moment is unique. Every Forex trading system will fail from time to time. Our work here is to find a Forex trading system that fits our personality as traders, otherwise the trader will find it hard to follow it.

Looking for Easy Money
Unfortunately most traders are attracted to the Forex market for this reason. Mainly because of the publicity showing or rather trying to show how easy is to trade and make money in the Forex market.
Fact: Yes, it is very easy to trade, anyone can do it. It is as hard as one click. But the second part of it isnt that easy. Making money or achieving consistent profitable results is hard. It requires lots of education, patience, discipline, commitment, and this list could go to infinite. In a few words, it is possible to have consistent profitable results, but definitely it is not easy.

Looking for Excitement
Some other traders are attracted to the Forex market or any other financial market because they think it is exciting to be a trader.
Fact: Yes, it is very exciting to trade the Forex market. But if this is the main reason you are still trading the Forex market, sooner or later you will discover the most expensive adventure you have ever known. Do some thinking on it.

Not Using Money Management.
Most traders forget about this important aspect of trading. They think they shouldnt be using money management until they achieve consistent profitable results. They totally forget about the risk side of trading.
Fact: Money management allows your profits to increase geometrically, but also limits your risk on every single trade. Money management tells you how much to risk on each trade. Using money management is a must if you want to achieve your trading goals. By using money management you make sure you are going to be able to trade tomorrow, the next week, month and the following years.

Not Being Psychology Tuned
This is one of the most underestimated subjects when it comes to trading. One of the main principles of financial markets is that the price of each instrument is based on the perception of each individual participant the crowd. In other words the price of each instrument is determined by the fear, greed, ego and hope of all traders.
Fact: Being aware of all psychological issues that affect the decisions made by traders will definitely put the odds in your favor.

Lack of Education
Education is the base of knowledge on every discipline. As lawyers and doctors require several years of college until they get their degree, Forex traders also require long years of study. It is better to have someone experienced to guide you through your trading, since some information could take you in the wrong path.
Fact: The market teaches us invaluable lessons on every single trade made. The process of education for a Forex trader could take for ever. Thats right, we never stop learning. We should be humble about the markets and our knowledge; otherwise the market will prove us wrong.

These are some of the most important barriers every trader faces when trying to trade successfully.

Trading successfully the Forex markets is no easy task, it requires a lot of hard work to do it right, but with the right education, you will put yourself closer to your trading goals.

FOREX, A Trending Market.

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

The Forex market is widely known by its high liquidity and high volume of transactions occurring during most of its long trading week. These characteristics highly contribute to make the Forex market a very trendy market with few trend-less periods during the whole trading period.

But what does this mean to the Forex trader? Mainly this trendy characteristic of the currency markets means that there will be plenty of opportunities for the trader to find profitable trades during the day.

As you start analyzing forex charts you will realize that the market often display’s some very familiar patterns of price movement, this is; trends; and you will notice that once a pattern is established, it becomes the most probable course of future price action until the market changes. Giving you a good forecast of what comes next with the currency prices.

There are two types of markets which will become very important for you to identify and understand; these are: trending and, the less frequent, trend-less markets. Each market type has two specific patterns which you will also notice over time.

A Trending market is defined as a steady, elongated price movements with less than a 45 degree angle with occasional pauses, profit taking, or resting periods.

In a Trending market, you will notice two main and quite evident patterns:

Uptrends – A pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Downtrends – A pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

There is also the less frequent kind of market, this is a Trend-less market with erratic price movements which are often steep (greater than 45 -degree angle) and cannot sustain and therefore must reverse. Although the movements can move many points in a short period of time, they are constantly and rapidly oscillating with the consequence that they often result in very little net price movement over time.

In a Trend-less market, you will find these main patterns:

Choppy – An erratic pattern of higher highs and lower lows.

Sideways – A narrow pattern of lower highs and higher lows.

While up-trend and down-trend periods will offer excellent trading results most of the time, choppy markets often create stop outs, this is they activate your stops by constantly overshooting your projected resistance level but without never really crossing too far from this level; while sideways markets produce for little in either direction making them hard to trade and to make any profit during these periods.

As always in Forex, your main trading objective is to get into profitable trades most of the time and a trending market is the perfect situation to find this profitable trades by riding the trends until you make your target profit objective of the day.