Forexunderstanding

Most traders have heard of seasonal patterns, something which is mostly associated with commodities. The foreign exchange market also has calendar patterns which influence trading, and just like in commodities, traders can take advantage of them to improve their odds for success and profits.
Monthly Patterns
Nearly all currency pairs have one or more months during which they have a directional tendency. There are three pairs in particular which have traded in the same direction during a particular month at least seven years in a row. AUDJPY has risen in January, while USDCAD has fallen in June and USDJPY has dropped in August. In each case, the moves have been significant. Lets take a look at USDJPY as an example.
On average, USDJPY has declined over 325 points each year since 1999 in the month of August, which translates to 2.80%. While the percentage does not seem extraordinary, when one takes leverage in to consideration, it is a different story. Had one shorted 100,000 USDJPY at the start of each August and closed that position out at the end of the month, the total profit would have been in excess of 20,000 (not taking in to account interest carry). That is an outstanding return considering the margin requirement for a position like that is only 2,000. And this does not even consider compounding!
Weekday Patterns
For the short-term trader, there are also patterns of behavior which are based on weekdays. It is a little more complicated, however, than just saying buy or sell on Monday, for example. A secondary condition must be applied, which can be accomplished using the month. The result is patterns which take place on certain weekdays during a given month.
An example of this kind of pattern is GBPUSD on Mondays in December. The pound has risen 73% of the time on Monday during the last month of the year since 1999 (31 observations). The average move has been 40 pips. Assuming a 5 pip spread, a trader who entered traded this pattern over the last seven years would have booked over 1000 pips in profits, which translates to more than 10,000 if one took positions of 100,000 GBPUSD each time.
Trading the Patterns
The examples outlined above are just a couple of the patterns which can be found in the forex market. There are many worth incorporating in to ones trading. Obviously, one strategy which could be employed is a simple enter-and-hold based on the pattern for a given month or weekday. That, however, does leave one open to the both in-trade draw downs, some of which can be substantial, and the simple fact that patterns do not always repeat every time, and sometimes change.
An alternative to enter-and-hold is to use calendar patterns to bias ones trading. For example, a day trader could look for opportunities to buy in to weakness in GBPUSD on Mondays in December. Similarly, a swing trader could use short-term breakdowns to enter in to short trades in USDJPY during August.
The trader looking to employ forex calendar patterns must utilize the same good risk procedures as are always necessary. This applies regardless of the strategy employed.

How To Start Trading The Forex Market? (Part 5)

What are *PIPS* ?

Currencies are traded on a price point (pip) system. Each currency pair has its own pip value.

When you see a FOREX price quote, you’ll see something listed like this:

EURUSD 1.221013

Explanation:

a) If you want to BUY the EURUSD ( meaning you BUY EUROS and SELL US ) you buy 100,000 EUROS and you SELL 122,130 US, or in other words you receive
122,130 US for 100,000 EUROS.

B) If you want to SELL the EURUSD ( meaning you SELL EUROS and BUY US ) you buy 122,100 US and sell 100,000 EUROS, or in other words you receive 100,000 EUROS for 122,100 US.

The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread. In the example above, the spread is 3 or 3 pips.

Since the US pound is the centerpiece of the FOREX market, it is normally considered the ‘base’ currency for quotes. In the “Majors”, this includes USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of 1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair.

For example a quote of USDCHF 1.3000 means that fore one U.S. pound you receive 1.30 Swiss Francs. or in other words, you receive 1.30 Swiss Franc for each 1 US.

When the U.S. pound is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the pound has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USDCHF quote above increases to 1.3050 the pound is stronger because it will now buy more Swiss Franc than before.

The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian pound (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as EURUSD 1.2080, meaning that for EURO you receive 1.2080 U.S. pounds.

In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. pound is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening pound, as it now takes more U.S. pounds to equal one Euro, British pound or an Australian pound.

In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.

Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. pound are called cross currencies, but the calculation is the same. For example, a quote of EURJPY 134.50 signifies that one Euro is equal to 134.50 Japanese yen.

HOW TO BUY ( going LONG )and SELL ( going SHORT ) in the FOREX Market?

Keep in mind 2 very important rules:

RULE # 1) Cut your LOOSING trades and let your WINNING trades RUN

YOU WILL HAVE LOSING TRADES. Every FOREX trader has. The secret is, that a consistent, disciplined trader, at the end of the day, adds up more winning trades than losing trades.

When you and see on your charts, without any doubt, that you are in a losing trade, don’t keep losing money. Most of the novice traders are lowering their stop loss just to prove they are right or hoping that the market will reverse. 99% of these trades, are ending up with more losses. Most of the profitable trades are usually “right” immediately.

Remember, smart traders know there are many other opportunities. CUT your losses short and compound those winning positions.

RULE 2) NEVER EVER trade FOREX without placing a Stop Loss Order.

PLACE a STOP order, right along with your ENTRY order, via your online trading station, to prevent potential losses.

Before initiating any trade, you have to calculate at what point ( price) you would be wrong, because the market changed direction, and would want to cut your losses.

To make profits, in the FOREX, a trader can enter the market with a *buy position* (known as going “long”) or a *sell position* (known as going “short”).

As an example let’s assume you’ve been studying the EURO. The EURO is paired first with the U.S. pound or USD.

Your trading methods, rules, strategies, etc., tell you that the EURO will rice in the next 2 weeks, So you buy the EURUSD pair meaning you will simultaneously buy EUROS, and SELL pounds).

You open up your excellent trading station software (provided to you for free by Fenix Capital Management, LLC www.fenixcapitalmanagement.com ) and you see that the EURUSD pair is trading at:

EURUSD: 1.20101.2013

As you you believe that the market price for the EURUSD pair will go higher, you will enter a *buy position* in the market.

As an example, lets say you bought one lot EURUSD at 1.2013. As long as you sell back the pair at a higher price, then you make money.

To illustrate a typical FX SELL trade, consider this scenario involving the USDJPY currency pair:

REMEMBER Selling (“going short”) the currency pair implies selling the first, base currency, and buying the second, quote currency. You sell the currency pair if you believe the base currency (USD) will go down relative to the quote currency (JPY), or equivalently, that the quote currency (JPY) will go up relative to the base currency (USD).

HOW TO CALCULATE PROFIT OR LOSS?

The Profit Calculations, on the Short-sell trade scenario below, may seem somewhat complicated if you’ve never been in the FOREX market before, but this process is continually calculated through your broker trade station (software). I show you this process below so you can SEE how a PROFIT might occur.

The current bidask price for USDJPY is 107.50107.54, meaning you can buy 1 US for 107.54 YEN, or sell 1 US for 107.50 YEN.

Suppose you think that the US pound (USD) is overvalued against the YEN (JPY). To execute this strategy, you would sell pounds (simultaneously buying YEN), and then wait for the exchange rate to rise.

Your trade would be the following: you sell 1 lot USD (US 100,000) and you buy 1 lot JPY (10,754.000 YEN). (Remember, at 0.25 % margin, your initial margin deposit for this trade would be 250.)

As you expected, USDJPY falls to 106.50106.54, meaning you can now buy 1 US for 106.54 Japanese YEN or sell 1 US for 106.50.

Since you’re short pounds (and are long YEN), you must now buy pounds and sell back the YEN to realize any profit.

You buy US 100,000 at the current USDJPY rate of 106.54, and receive 10,654,000 YEN. Since you originally bought (paid for) 10,754,000 YEN, your profit is 100,000 YEN.

To calculate your P&L in terms of US pounds, divide 100,000 by the current USDJPY rate of 106.54

Total profit = US 938.61